Phased release confusion: update shows 'paused' or only some users got it

Phased release rolls an update out to automatic-updaters over 7 days (1%, 2%, 5%, 10%, 20%, 50%, 100%). Pausing stops new automatic rollout but — surprise — anyone who visits the App Store page can still manually download the new version while paused. It also only applies to updates, never your first release.